5395 Carolina Ave · Naples Manor, FL 34113

$580,000

15 bd · 12.0 ba · 2,686 sqft · Other public records · 282 Days on market

Built 1969 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Naples Manor Triplex featuring 4 Bedrooms, 4 Baths, Large Driveway, Rear Shed, Central Water/Sewer and a convenient location with quick access to Downtown Naples and Marco Island.

Key facts

• Large driveway
• Rear shed
• Central water/sewer

Tags

• LARGE DRIVEWAY
• REAR SHED
• CENTRAL WATER/SEWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 15-bed/12.0-bath other listed at $580k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $550k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $494k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $494k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#615 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 597 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,940/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($510k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $238k; list at $580k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $494,004 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.91%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-91,357
• Equity at exit: $86,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-35,712
• Equity at exit: $50,148

Cash invested: $162,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34113

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 597
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,042
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,328/yr
• Insurance: −$242
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,037
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,153

Max offer price $550,346

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $160	-5% $-4	+0% $-168	+5% $-332	+10% $-496
Rent	-10% $-558	-5% $-363	+0% $-168	+5% $27	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $-20	base $-168	+0.5pp $-318	+1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $145,000
• Closing costs: $17,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $580,000 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $580,000 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $580,000 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $580,000 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $580,000 Active 274 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $580,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $580,000 Active 272 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $580,000 Active 271 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $580,000 Active 266 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $580,000 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $580,000 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $580,000 Active 263 DOM
13. 2026-04-21
    price $580,000 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Naples Manor Triplex featuring 4 Bedrooms, 4 Baths, Large Driveway, Rear Shed, Central Water/Sewer and a convenient location with quick access to Downtown Naples and Marco Island.

14. 2026-02-04
    status Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Naples Manor Triplex featuring 4 Bedrooms, 4 Baths, Large Driveway, Rear Shed, Central Water/Sewer and a convenient location with quick access to Downtown Naples and Marco Island.

15. 2026-01-07
    historical 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Naples Manor Triplex featuring 4 Bedrooms, 4 Baths, Large Driveway, Rear Shed, Central Water/Sewer and a convenient location with quick access to Downtown Naples and Marco Island.

16. 2025-08-12
    listed $620,000 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Naples Manor Triplex featuring 4 Bedrooms, 4 Baths, Large Driveway, Rear Shed, Central Water/Sewer and a convenient location with quick access to Downtown Naples and Marco Island.

17. 2024-12-31
    historical
18. 2024-06-19
    price $749,900
19. 2024-05-16
    listed $875,000 Active
20. 2017-07-10
    soldstatus $238,000 Sold
21. 2017-06-26
    status Pending With Contingencies
22. 2017-06-16
    price $239,000
23. 2017-05-17
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,328 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,814 · $401/mo
• Expected delta: +$486/yr (+$40/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,489
• − Property taxes: −$4,328
• − Insurance: −$8,018
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,742
• − Management: −$4,742
• − Depreciation: −$16,873
• Taxable loss: −$11,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,859
• After-tax cash flow: $845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples Manor

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #11875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Naples Manor, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,056
• Household income: $81,674
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 10% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.86%
• Current HPI: 279.4232
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+132.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $580,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-04 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $620,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2024-06-19 Price Changed $749,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-05-16 Listed $875,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-07-10 Sold (MLS) $238,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-06-26 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2017-06-16 Price Changed $239,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-05-17 Listed $250,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,328 · +16.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.