19185 Pagoda Ln

Summerdale, AL 36580

$278,580D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,530
• Tax + insurance: −$486
• HOA: −$28
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-504/mo
• Annual: $-6,048/yr
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.40%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $81,697

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-504 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (30.0% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#384 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summerdale School (math 23% / reading 55%, grade F, #257 of 627 statewide, top 41%, 573 students, 77% FRL); Elberta High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 784 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 38% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.