19185 Pagoda Ln · Summerdale, AL 36580

$278,580

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 8,052 sqft lot $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is currently under construction! Call today to ask about our current buyer's incentives! The Camilla floor plan features 4 bedrooms 2 Bathrooms, 1504 Sq Ft. 9 Ft. High ceilings, 1 car garage. This beautiful home is being built with SMARTHOME CAPABILITIES, Luxury Vinyl flooring. The Kitchen features Large Peninsula, MOEN Faucets, Garbage Disposal, Stainless Dishwasher, Stainless Over the Range Microwave, and Stainless Smooth Top Electric Range. 10-Year LED Lighting throughout the home. Energy Efficient LOW-E DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS. Termite Coverage for the FIRST YEAR, fabric shields for the windows and doors. * This home is being built to Gold FORTIFIED Home TM certification, which m

Key facts

• Moen faucets
• Large peninsula
• 8,052 sq ft lot

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• LARGE PENINSULA
• MOEN FAUCETS

🏗️ New construction. The $278,580 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $291,776.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-504 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#384 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summerdale School (math 23% / reading 55%, grade F, #257 of 627 statewide, top 41%, 573 students, 77% FRL); Elberta High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 784 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 38% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $194,991 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.40%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,776
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19185 Pagoda Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	1mo	$278,154	$185	99
21129 Roughleaf Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	2mo	$280,000	$186	90
21302 Roughleaf Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	4mo	$277,080	$184	90
19173 Pagoda Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-5%)	2mo	$269,400	$188	85
21299 Roughleaf Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-6%)	2mo	$277,041	$196	82
21339 Roughleaf Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-6%)	2mo	$280,540	$199	82
21251 Roughleaf Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-6%)	3mo	$277,540	$197	81
21290 Roughleaf Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-6%)	3mo	$255,000	$181	80
21163 Roughleaf Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-6%)	3mo	$272,900	$194	80
21272 Roughleaf Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-5%)	4mo	$268,976	$188	76
19197 Pagoda Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	2mo	$266,453	$208	68
19263 Treehill Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	4mo	$255,000	$199	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $87,645
• Equity at exit: $221,140

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $278,211
• Equity at exit: $438,455

Cash invested: $81,697 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36580

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,530
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,377/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,588

Max offer price $218,851

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,944
• Closing costs: $8,753
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr
• Likely covers: trashelectric

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $278,580 Active New Construction

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,344
• − Property taxes: −$4,377
• − Insurance: −$1,459
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$8,488
• Taxable loss: −$11,348
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,724
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Summerdale

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #384
• US rank: #21872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,025
• Population (ZIP): 7,025

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.97%
• Current HPI: 288.8697
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-03-12 Listed $278,580 BCAR