412 Atlantic St

Bethlehem, PA 18015

$245,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,337 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 170 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,163/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$356
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $68/mo
• Annual: $818/yr
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($818/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (11.7% below list).
• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#138 in PA, #1,122 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bethlehem Area SD (urban): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #342 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Donegan El Sch (math 5% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,259 of 1,518 statewide, top 84%, 449 students, 90% FRL); Broughal Ms (math 7% / reading 31%, grade F, #447 of 512 statewide, top 88%, 500 students, 88% FRL); Freedom Hs (math 49% / reading 5%, grade F, #365 of 437 statewide, top 85%, 1,753 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 43% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bethlehem Area SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $245k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.3% in Bethlehem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.