2886 State Highway 220

Oxford, NY 13801

$125,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,399 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,238/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$357
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-419/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-419/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (1.0% below list).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Oxford Academy And Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #533 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.