2886 State Highway 220 · Oxford, NY 13801

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,399 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2002 3.01 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Pretty country setting on 3 acres. 3BR and 2BA home with some outbuildings for extra storage. Minutes away to acres of state land, Bowman Lake and Balsam Pond. First floor bedroom and bath can make for 1st floor living.

Key facts

• Country setting
• First floor living
• 3.01 acre lot

Tags

• COUNTRY SETTING
• OUTBUILDINGS FOR STORAGE
• MINUTES TO STATE LAND
• FIRST FLOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-419/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Oxford Academy And Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #533 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $65,966
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.61×
• Total profit: $196,226
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13801

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,662/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,282

Max offer price $118,836

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2025-01-25
   status Pending
2. 2024-10-24
   price $125,000
3. 2024-10-24
   price $125,000
4. 2024-10-01
   price $135,000
5. 2024-10-01
   price $135,000
6. 2024-09-30
   listed $142,000 Active
7. 2024-09-21
   historical
8. 2024-08-21
   price $142,000
9. 2024-08-21
   price $142,000
10. 2024-07-02
    price $145,000
11. 2024-07-02
    price $145,000
12. 2024-06-07
    price $154,000
13. 2024-06-03
    price $154,000
14. 2024-03-10
    price $159,000
15. 2024-02-27
    price $159,000
16. 2024-02-03
    listed $167,900 Active
17. 2024-01-22
    price $167,900
18. 2023-12-26
    price $169,900
19. 2023-12-21
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,662 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,662 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,662
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,188
• − Management: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,448
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$588
• After-tax cash flow: $169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oxford Academy And Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622260
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,916
• Composite: 33.26/100
• National rank: #5513
• State rank: #533 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oxford

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #14698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,533

Population outlook (Chenango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,669 people
• By 2030: 43,484 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 38,774 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 34,000 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,637 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 16,452 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chenango

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 36.4% · R 63.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+23.3 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.55%
• Current HPI: 370.4852
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-26.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-25 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $125,000 GBAOR
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $125,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $135,000 GBAOR
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $135,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-09-30 Listed $142,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-09-21 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $142,000 GBAOR
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $142,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-07-02 Price Changed $145,000 GBAOR
• 2024-07-02 Price Changed $145,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-06-07 Price Changed $154,000 GBAOR
• 2024-06-03 Price Changed $154,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-03-10 Price Changed $159,000 GBAOR
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $159,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-02-03 Listed $167,900 GBAOR
• 2024-01-22 Price Changed $167,900 UNYREIS
• 2023-12-26 Price Changed $169,900 UNYREIS
• 2023-12-21 Listed $169,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,662 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.