682 Route 365

Cold Brook, NY 13438

$160,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,311/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-844/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-844/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,123 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Poland Central School District (rural): math 63% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #240 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.