682 Route 365 · Cold Brook, NY 13438

$160,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 1900 Good condition 0.32 ac lot $100/sqft · 79% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perched above Hinckley Reservoir with scenic views, this property is a rare opportunity to create your own retreat. A blueline water feature adds natural charm and a peaceful, seasonal waterfront setting. Offering one-level living with 2 full baths, a spacious living room, and an eat-in kitchen, the home is already underway with renovations—giving you a valuable head start. Potential for improved access to the water (subject to approvals) adds to the upside. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to customize and build value in a beautiful location.

Key facts

• One-level living
• Eat-in kitchen
• Scenic views

Tags

• SCENIC VIEWS
• BLUELINE WATER FEATURE
• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• RENOVATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-844/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,123 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Poland Central School District (rural): math 63% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #240 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $131,066 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $780,132
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -79.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $82,682
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $247,047
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13438

• Home prices YoY: 10.1%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $149,827

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    listed $160,000 Active 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Perched above Hinckley Reservoir with scenic views, this property is a rare opportunity to create your own retreat. A blueline water feature adds natural charm and a peaceful, seasonal waterfront setting. Offering one-level living with 2 full baths, a spacious living room, and an eat-in kitchen, the home is already underway with renovations—giving you a valuable head start. Potential for improved access to the water (subject to approvals) adds to the upside. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to customize and build value in a beautiful location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$865
• After-tax cash flow: $22/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with cosmetic updates, offering a scenic waterfront location and potential for improved access. Ideal for investors looking to capitalize on its unique setting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Waterfront access improvements — Subject to approvals, could significantly increase property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Waterfront access improvements — Subject to approvals, could significantly increase property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623370
• Math proficiency: 63% ▲ 15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 17.00%
• Median HH income: $47,888
• Composite: 51.32/100
• National rank: #1742
• State rank: #240 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cold Brook

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1123
• US rank: #23080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,310

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.60%
• Current HPI: 368.1042
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $160,000 CNYIS