28889 Deep Forest Ct

Yosemite Lakes, CA 93614

$192,500C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,568/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,009
• Tax + insurance: −$418
• HOA: −$178
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $423/mo
• Annual: $5,077/yr
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.42%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $53,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $192k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $192k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#835 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Yosemite Unified (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #321 of 517 in CA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rivergold Elementary (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #779 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 392 students, 56% FRL); Yosemite High (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #165 of 1,170 statewide, top 15%, 553 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 38% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Yosemite Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.6% in Yosemite Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.