28889 Deep Forest Ct · Yosemite Lakes, CA 93614

$192,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1984 1.11 ac lot $105/sqft · 53% below area $178/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This three bedroom home feels open, modern and light. Located within the Yosemite Lakes Park Community, the pictures of this home say it all. The home features: vaulted ceilings; a loft; updated bathroom; open kitchen; skylights; indoor laundry; owned solar and a beautiful out door living area with a deck that partially wraps around the home, a tree house and an above ground pool. Some of the communities amenities include a 9-hole golf course, riding stables, clubhouse with restaurant, swimming pool and tennis courts and much more. Call today for your private showing.

Key facts

• Paved driveway
• Riding stables
• 9-hole golf course

Tags

• YOSEMITE LAKES PARK COMMUNITY
• KITCHEN WITH DINING AREA
• OWNED SOLAR
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• 9-HOLE GOLF COURSE
• RIDING STABLES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Madera County
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $178; Community amenities include pool, spa/hot tub, clubhouse, green area, security, lake/pond, and playground

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Propane; Septic tank; Electric service listed as off
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Concrete foundation; Built with public-record living area
• Exterior features: Foothill lot location; Solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven (full-size); Dishwasher
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms with tub/shower and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; F/S Range/Oven; Laminate flooring; Inside laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $192k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.6% in Yosemite Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#835 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Yosemite Unified (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #321 of 517 in CA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rivergold Elementary (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #779 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 392 students, 56% FRL); Yosemite High (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #165 of 1,170 statewide, top 15%, 553 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 38% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Yosemite Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.42%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $408,447
• List price: $192,500
• Delta: -52.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42718 Deep Forest Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,824 (-0%)	2mo	$385,000	$211	88
43376 Crystal Springs Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,820 (-0%)	6mo	$350,000	$192	80
43468 Crystal Cave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,654 (-10%)	1mo	$335,000	$203	68
42607 Long Hollow Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,726 (-6%)	4mo	$365,000	$211	67
42809 Long Holw	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,730 (-5%)	6mo	$430,000	$249	66
43480 Cave Stone Ct	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,905 (+4%)	7mo	$430,000	$226	60
42893 Long Hollow Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,694 (-7%)	9mo	$472,000	$279	59
28530 Creek Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+5%)	8mo	$420,000	$219	58
42800 Long Hollow Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	2,060 (+13%)	15mo	$400,000	$194	52
42445 Deep Forest Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,654 (-10%)	9mo	$369,000	$223	49
29030 Yosemite Springs Pkwy	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,095 (+15%)	8mo	$440,000	$210	36
29619 Glacier Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-12%)	14mo	$360,000	$222	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,038
• Equity at exit: $28,702

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $32,028
• Equity at exit: $16,644

Cash invested: $53,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93614

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,009
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,059/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$178
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,033

Max offer price $192,500

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,125
• Closing costs: $5,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $178 · $2,136/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $192,500 Active 559-char remark
2. 2025-09-04
   listed $350,000 Active
3. 2021-10-02
   price $350,000

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   This three bedroom home feels open, modern and light. Located within the Yosemite Lakes Park Community, the pictures of this home say it all. The home features: vaulted ceilings; a loft; updated bathroom; open kitchen; skylights; indoor laundry; owned solar and a beautiful out door living area with a deck that partially wraps around the home, a tree house and an above ground pool. Some of the communities amenities include a 9-hole golf course, riding stables, clubhouse with restaurant, swimming pool and tennis courts and much more. Call today for your private showing.

4. 2021-10-01
   soldstatus $375,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   This three bedroom home feels open, modern and light. Located within the Yosemite Lakes Park Community, the pictures of this home say it all. The home features: vaulted ceilings; a loft; updated bathroom; open kitchen; skylights; indoor laundry; owned solar and a beautiful out door living area with a deck that partially wraps around the home, a tree house and an above ground pool. Some of the communities amenities include a 9-hole golf course, riding stables, clubhouse with restaurant, swimming pool and tennis courts and much more. Call today for your private showing.

5. 2021-10-01
   soldstatus $375,000

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   This three bedroom home feels open, modern and light. Located within the Yosemite Lakes Park Community, the pictures of this home say it all. The home features: vaulted ceilings; a loft; updated bathroom; open kitchen; skylights; indoor laundry; owned solar and a beautiful out door living area with a deck that partially wraps around the home, a tree house and an above ground pool. Some of the communities amenities include a 9-hole golf course, riding stables, clubhouse with restaurant, swimming pool and tennis courts and much more. Call today for your private showing.

6. 2021-08-19
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   This three bedroom home feels open, modern and light. Located within the Yosemite Lakes Park Community, the pictures of this home say it all. The home features: vaulted ceilings; a loft; updated bathroom; open kitchen; skylights; indoor laundry; owned solar and a beautiful out door living area with a deck that partially wraps around the home, a tree house and an above ground pool. Some of the communities amenities include a 9-hole golf course, riding stables, clubhouse with restaurant, swimming pool and tennis courts and much more. Call today for your private showing.

7. 2021-08-19
   price $375,000

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   This three bedroom home feels open, modern and light. Located within the Yosemite Lakes Park Community, the pictures of this home say it all. The home features: vaulted ceilings; a loft; updated bathroom; open kitchen; skylights; indoor laundry; owned solar and a beautiful out door living area with a deck that partially wraps around the home, a tree house and an above ground pool. Some of the communities amenities include a 9-hole golf course, riding stables, clubhouse with restaurant, swimming pool and tennis courts and much more. Call today for your private showing.

8. 2021-08-14
   listed $350,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   This three bedroom home feels open, modern and light. Located within the Yosemite Lakes Park Community, the pictures of this home say it all. The home features: vaulted ceilings; a loft; updated bathroom; open kitchen; skylights; indoor laundry; owned solar and a beautiful out door living area with a deck that partially wraps around the home, a tree house and an above ground pool. Some of the communities amenities include a 9-hole golf course, riding stables, clubhouse with restaurant, swimming pool and tennis courts and much more. Call today for your private showing.

9. 2017-10-25
   soldstatus $209,900 Sold
10. 2017-10-25
    soldstatus $209,900 Closed Sale
11. 2017-10-24
    soldstatus $210,000
12. 2017-09-15
    status Pending Sale
13. 2017-09-15
    status Pending
14. 2017-08-29
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2017-08-29
    status Backup
16. 2017-07-03
    price $209,900
17. 2017-07-03
    price $209,900
18. 2017-06-05
    status Active
19. 2017-06-05
    status Active
20. 2017-05-23
    status Pending Sale
21. 2017-05-23
    status Pending
22. 2017-04-18
    listed $214,900 Active
23. 2017-04-18
    listed $214,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,059 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,059 · $338/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 47 unhealthy d/yr today · 52 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,821
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,783
• − Property taxes: −$4,059
• − Insurance: −$962
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,466
• − Management: −$2,466
• − HOA: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$5,600
• Taxable income: $2,349
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$564
• After-tax cash flow: $4,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yosemite Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600160
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $53,950
• Composite: 26.94/100
• National rank: #7079
• State rank: #321 of 517 in CA

Livability — Yosemite Lakes

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #835
• US rank: #23177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yosemite Lakes, CA
• Population (ZIP): 11,144

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.85%
• Current HPI: 212.7962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $192,500 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $350,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-10-02 Price Changed $350,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-01 Sold (MLS) $375,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-08-19 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2021-08-19 Price Changed $375,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-08-14 Listed $350,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-10-25 Sold (MLS) $209,900 CRMLS
• 2017-10-25 Sold (MLS) $209,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-15 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-09-15 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2017-08-29 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2017-08-29 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2017-07-03 Price Changed $209,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-07-03 Price Changed $209,900 CRMLS
• 2017-06-05 Relisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2017-06-05 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2017-05-23 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-05-23 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2017-04-18 Listed $214,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-04-18 Listed $214,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,059 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.