4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,956 sqft ·
Built 1952
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,244/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,967
Tax + insurance
−$625
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$471
Net cashflow
$-819/mo
Annual
$-9,824/yr
Cap rate
3.67%
Cash-on-cash
-9.36%
DSCR
0.58
1% rule
0.60%
Cash to close
$105,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-819 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (31.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (40.2% below list).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $224k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#180 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
Jefferson County SD 509J (rural): math 19% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #55 of 58 in OR (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Madras Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #377 of 412 statewide, top 93%, 363 students, 94% FRL); Jefferson County Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #84 of 128 statewide, top 66%, 473 students, 94% FRL); Madras High School (math 8% / reading 47%, grade F, #114 of 143 statewide, top 80%, 781 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 77% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $242k; list at $375k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.9% in Madras — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-F9C1ZYDQSA5SEQ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29