3966 S. PACIFIC HWY, S27564 Plan

Phoenix, OR 97501

$198,900C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 912 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,247/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,043
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $401/mo
• Annual: $4,806/yr
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.63%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $55,692

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 912 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in OR, #884 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Hill Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #320 of 412 statewide, top 82%, 345 students, 78% FRL); Talent Middle School (math 10% / reading 33%, grade F, #122 of 128 statewide, top 95%, 473 students, 79% FRL); Phoenix High School (math 24% / reading 70%, grade D-, #56 of 143 statewide, top 41%, 700 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.7% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 912 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.