3966 S. PACIFIC HWY, S27564 Plan · Phoenix, OR 97501

$198,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 912 Days on market

Excellent condition $132/sqft · 78% above area ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new manufactured homes for sale in Pacific Village, an all-age community. Move-in ready homes and buildable floorplans. This spacious home has 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Complete package includes set-up & delivery, 12 x 40 covered carport w/ concrete driveway, walkway, painted skirting, steps & wood rails, composite treads, rain gutters, front landscaping and Tuff shed. New kitchen appliances. RV storage available. Pet friendly, no breed or weight restrictions. All new premier manufactured home community w/ pool offering space rent incentives. Financing available on approval.

Key facts

• Listed 912 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.0% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in OR, #884 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 912 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,032 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 912 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.63%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,702
• List price: $198,900
• Delta: 78.06%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3966 S Pacific Hwy #2	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,512 (0%)	14mo	$215,000	$142	89
3966 S Pacific Hwy #6	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (0%)	12mo	$223,000	$147	85
93 Northridge Ter #50	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+4%)	10mo	$227,000	$145	69
93 Northridge Ter #26	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-7%)	3mo	$109,000	$78	69
3555 S Pacific Hwy #141	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (0%)	13mo	$85,000	$56	66
3555 S Pacific Hwy #26	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	10mo	$180,000	$125	65
93 Northridge Ter Spc 23	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-7%)	9mo	$116,000	$83	64
3555 S Pacific Hwy Spc 131	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-11%)	7mo	$98,000	$73	52
3431 S Pacific Hwy Spc 64	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+7%)	0mo	$73,000	$45	51
3431 S Pacific Hwy #77	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	8mo	$85,000	$59	49
10 E South Stage Rd Spc 101	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-14%)	5mo	$125,000	$96	33
10 E South Stage Rd #609	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-14%)	13mo	$120,000	$92	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,745
• Equity at exit: $29,657

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $21,941
• Equity at exit: $17,197

Cash invested: $55,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97501

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,043
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,984/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,740

Max offer price $198,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $538	-5% $469	+0% $401	+5% $332	+10% $263
Rent	-10% $223	-5% $312	+0% $401	+5% $489	+10% $578
Rate	-1.0pp $501	-0.5pp $451	base $401	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,725
• Closing costs: $5,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
412 Oak St Unit 2 Phoenix, OR	3.0	2.5	1368	$1,750	$1.28	45d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $198,900 Active 912 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $198,900 Active 910 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,900 Active 909 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,900 Active 908 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,900 Active 907 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,900 Active 906 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $198,900 Active 904 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,900 Active 903 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $198,900 Active 901 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $198,900 Active 900 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $198,900 Active 899 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,900 Active 898 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,900 Active 893 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,900 Active 892 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,900 Active 891 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $198,900 Active 890 DOM
17. 2023-12-23
    price $198,900 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Brand new manufactured homes for sale in Pacific Village, an all-age community. Move-in ready homes and buildable floorplans. This spacious home has 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Complete package includes set-up & delivery, 12 x 40 covered carport w/ concrete driveway, walkway, painted skirting, steps & wood rails, composite treads, rain gutters, front landscaping and Tuff shed. New kitchen appliances. RV storage available. Pet friendly, no breed or weight restrictions. All new premier manufactured home community w/ pool offering space rent incentives. Financing available on approval.

18. 2023-12-22
    listed $204,900 Active 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Brand new manufactured homes for sale in Pacific Village, an all-age community. Move-in ready homes and buildable floorplans. This spacious home has 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Complete package includes set-up & delivery, 12 x 40 covered carport w/ concrete driveway, walkway, painted skirting, steps & wood rails, composite treads, rain gutters, front landscaping and Tuff shed. New kitchen appliances. RV storage available. Pet friendly, no breed or weight restrictions. All new premier manufactured home community w/ pool offering space rent incentives. Financing available on approval.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,141
• − Property taxes: −$2,984
• − Insurance: −$994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,157
• − Management: −$2,157
• − Depreciation: −$5,786
• Taxable income: $1,743
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$418
• After-tax cash flow: $4,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. Upgrades to cabinets, countertops, and flooring would significantly enhance its value and appeal to both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Upgrade to Rustic Hickory cabinets — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Upgrade to Quartz countertops — Improves durability and aesthetic appeal.
• Both Replace standard flooring with a more durable option — Enhances durability and aesthetic appeal.
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Upgrade to Rustic Hickory cabinets — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Upgrade to Quartz countertops — Improves durability and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Replace standard flooring with a more durable option — Enhances durability and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix-Talent SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4109630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,625
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8809
• State rank: #58 of 58 in OR

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #884

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment D+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 44,670
• Household income: $63,977
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1799.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.31%
• Current HPI: 248.6495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2023-12-23 Price Changed $198,900 Zillow
• 2023-12-22 Listed $204,900 Zillow