150 SE Sable Ln

Watertown, FL 32025

$219,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,767 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,764/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-100/mo
• Annual: $-1,203/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (19.5% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#798 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 631 students, 62% FRL); Columbia High School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,737 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $219k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.