150 SE Sable Ln · Watertown, FL 32025

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,767 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1990 Garage Est $260k · 16% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready home has been completely remodeled with newer appliances and kitchen upgrades, tiled baths & laminated flooring thru-out the entire home; huge rooms, plenty of storage closets, vaulted ceiling in living area; bright open floor plan; quiet beautiful view of the fountain in Eastside Village; great attention to details and fully furnished! This home is a MUST SEE!!!!

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 1990

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with clubhouseMonthly association fee of $75Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewerElectricity connectedSewer connectedWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceOne story
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exteriorShingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered rear porchScreened porchPaved road accessCommunity pool (not private)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorIce maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsAccessible full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: Ceiling fansPantryPrimary bedroom on the ground floorVaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupElectric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#798 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 631 students, 62% FRL); Columbia High School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,737 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $219k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,367 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,749
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 SE Ibis Way	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,745 (-1%)	8mo	$257,050	$147	79
212 SE Willow Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,878 (+6%)	10mo	$325,000	$173	78
195 SE Jenese Way	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-10%)	14mo	$195,000	$122	68
795 SE Defender Dr	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,568 (-11%)	8mo	$193,500	$123	63
132 SE Tribble St	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,800 (+2%)	3mo	$274,900	$153	62
234 SE Emerson Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,636 (-7%)	7mo	$200,000	$122	62
772 SE Defender Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,509 (-15%)	8mo	$170,000	$113	57
231 SE Golf Club Ave	0.54mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,696 (-4%)	6mo	$119,000	$70	56
144 SE Wilderness Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-14%)	12mo	$275,000	$182	55
434 SE Rosewood Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,511 (-14%)	11mo	$265,000	$175	52
1871 SE Baya Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-11%)	10mo	$175,000	$111	50
479 SE Rosewood Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,511 (-14%)	20mo	$288,000	$191	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $112,902
• Equity at exit: $197,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $337,527
• Equity at exit: $425,469

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,146/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,891

Max offer price $201,288

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-38	+0% $-100	+5% $-162	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-170	+0% $-100	+5% $-31	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-45	base $-100	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $219,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $219,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $219,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $219,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,000 Active 50 DOM
19. 2026-05-22
    price $219,000
20. 2026-04-10
    listed $230,000 Active
21. 2016-01-27
    soldstatus $110,500
22. 2015-12-14
    soldstatus $110,450 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Move-in ready home has been completely remodeled with newer appliances and kitchen upgrades, tiled baths & laminated flooring thru-out the entire home; huge rooms, plenty of storage closets, vaulted ceiling in living area; bright open floor plan; quiet beautiful view of the fountain in Eastside Village; great attention to details and fully furnished! This home is a MUST SEE!!!!

23. 2003-07-16
    soldstatus $88,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,146 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,146 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$2,146
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$5,002
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,200
• After-tax cash flow: $-3/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #18481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+146.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $219,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $230,000 realMLS
• 2016-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $110,500 Public Records
• 2015-12-14 Sold (MLS) $110,450 NFMLS
• 2003-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $88,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,146 · -18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.