6234 Mandalay Cir #57

Lely, FL 34112

$349,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,495 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,396/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$438
• HOA: −$538
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $-128/mo
• Annual: $-1,541/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $97,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (2.9% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $327k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#586 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lely Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 62% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 777 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,396/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 980% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.