6234 Mandalay Cir #57 · Lely, FL 34112

$349,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,495 sqft · Condo public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2006 $538/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy easy Naples living in this spacious side-by-side attached villa with no one above you, located in the intimate gated community of Mandalay with only 71 homes. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage, this well-maintained residence features BRAND NEW A/C, water heater, and interior paint. Roof is just 4 years young! The rear screened lanai offers a peaceful and private setting, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located in the highly desirable X flood zone with no flood insurance required, residents also enjoy a community pool and clubhouse, all just approximately 10 minutes from downtown Old Naples and 5th Avenue’s renowned shopping, dining, and world-class Gulf bea

Key facts

• Gated community
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SCREENED LANAI
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: End-unit within a complex of 71 units (2 units per building); Developer brochure used for lot measurements; Property restrictions include architectural and deeded restrictions; limits on number of vehicles and no RVs allowed
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee; HOA covers insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior and interior pest control, reserves, security, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, and trash removal; Professional management; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community room, sidewalks, streetlights, and underground utilities; Gated community; Total annual recurring fees reported; Total one-time fees reported

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Entry keypad; Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Attached villa (end unit); Built in 2006; Part of the Mandalay development; Single-story
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Privacy wall; Automatic sprinkler system; Shingle roof; Single-hung windows; Manual shutters; Stucco exterior finish; South rear exposure; Landscaped view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator/freezer; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom on ground floor; First-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewired; Foyer; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Vaulted ceiling; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Dining area open to living space; Great room; Guest bath; Guest room; Laundry in residence; Screened lanai/porch; Partially furnished; 5 ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $327k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#586 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lely Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 62% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 771 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,396/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 980% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,220 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-74,535
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-112,704
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34112

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 771
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,396 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,509/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$538
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,558

Max offer price $327,220

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $-29	+0% $-128	+5% $-227	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-397	-5% $-263	+0% $-128	+5% $6	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $-39	base $-128	+0.5pp $-219	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5841 Rattlesnake Hammock Rd Unit I-203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$3,500	$3.45	14d	1	0.28mi
5841 Rattlesnake Hammock Rd Unit 2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1133	$2,500	$2.21	24d	1	0.28mi
5857 Rattlesnake Hammock Rd #208 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1133	$3,000	$2.65	14d	1	0.31mi
940 Augusta Blvd Unit D939 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1419	$2,200	$1.55	24d	1	0.39mi
6254 Vista Garden Way Unit A Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,400	$1.90	22d	1	0.40mi
760 Augusta Blvd Unit D204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1294	$2,300	$1.78	24d	1	0.46mi
905 Augusta Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,850	$1.64	24d	1	0.47mi
709 Augusta Blvd Unit 709-5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$4,000	$2.70	14d	1	0.51mi
705 Augusta Blvd Unit 705-5 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$2,000	$1.78	14d	1	0.53mi
5859 Westbourgh Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1746	$8,500	$4.87	24d	1	0.54mi
5859 Westbourgh Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1746	$8,500	$4.87	14d	1	0.54mi
701 Augusta Blvd Unit 701-8 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$4,800	$3.84	14d	1	0.55mi
605 Augusta Blvd #14 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$4,000	$3.56	24d	1	0.58mi
605 Augusta Blvd #4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$3,950	$3.51	14d	1	0.58mi
5932 Cranbrook Way Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1310	$2,200	$1.68	24d	1	0.61mi
640 Augusta Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1634	$2,700	$1.65	24d	1	0.62mi
4556 Andover Way Unit E106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,900	$1.62	14d	1	0.64mi
4556 Andover Way Unit E104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$5,000	$4.66	14d	1	0.64mi
6276 Shadowood Cir #1503 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$6,000	$4.44	24d	1	0.64mi
575 Augusta Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	24d	1	0.64mi
3650 Sunset Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	1728	$4,950	$2.86	24d	1	0.67mi
555 Augusta Blvd Unit 3-1 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1249	$4,200	$3.36	24d	1	0.68mi
6473 Conning Tower Cir Unit 1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,600	$1.40	24d	1	0.71mi
7425 Inspira Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,660	$2.50	14d	17	0.72mi
5908 Cranbrook Way Unit I202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,500	$1.90	24d	1	0.73mi
413 Augusta Blvd #302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$5,500	$3.96	22d	1	0.78mi
265 Deerwood Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1179	$5,000	$4.24	24d	1	0.82mi
3655 Amberly Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$2,500	$2.06	24d	1	0.84mi
5733 Deauville Cir Unit G308 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$3,600	$2.52	24d	1	0.85mi
520 Augusta Blvd Unit B204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1294	$2,200	$1.70	24d	1	0.87mi
5741 Deauville Cir Unit F108 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$3,600	$2.52	24d	1	0.88mi
5651 Rattlesnake Hammock Rd Unit C-108 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,800	$1.71	24d	1	0.88mi
3685 Amberly Cir Unit D305 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$5,100	$3.86	24d	1	0.88mi
6026 Whitaker Rd Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$3,795	$3.85	14d	39	0.89mi
5635 Rattlesnake Hammock Rd Apt 203D Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,700	$1.61	22d	1	0.91mi
5826 Jasper Way Unit 101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$2,495	$1.85	24d	1	0.97mi
5778 Greenwood Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,000	$2.76	24d	1	0.99mi
5502 Greenwood Cir #1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,400	$1.66	24d	1	1.01mi
5535 Rattlesnake Hammock Rd #302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1205	$2,800	$2.32	24d	1	1.01mi
494 Saint Andrews Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,800	$1.65	24d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $538 · $6,456/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $349,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $355,000 Active
16. 2006-06-30
    soldstatus $370,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,509 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,509 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 38% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$3,509
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,260
• − Management: −$3,260
• − HOA: −$6,456
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$7,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,743
• After-tax cash flow: $202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lely

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #11224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,193
• Household income: $69,842
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 980.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.10%
• Current HPI: 256.9182
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.69%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $355,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2006-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,509 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.