156 Pine Ave

Commerce, GA 30529

$195,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,325/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-193/mo
• Annual: $-2,312/yr
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.24%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (32.0% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Commerce City (town): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 174 in GA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Commerce Middle School (math 44% / reading 51%, grade C-, #84 of 470 statewide, top 19%, 530 students, 56% FRL); Commerce High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #37 of 424 statewide, top 9%, 493 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.