156 Pine Ave · Commerce, GA 30529

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1950 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come tour this completely remodeled home in the heart of Commerce. Absolutely everything is brand new including HVAC, roof, cabinets, appliances and much more. Ideal House for working family, investment or rental (no living room).House is minutes from downtown, SK Battery and the Tanger Outlets. No expense has been spared to ensure new owner will have a maintenance-free home. Quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New hvac
• New electrical

Tags

• COMPLETELY UPDATED
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW HVAC
• NEW INSULATION
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing terms include Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 Volt electric service; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Natural gas available; Phone service available; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residential house; Resale property; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 1950; Concrete construction materials; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One-level layout; Public records list 728 living area; Crawl space foundation access; Living area recorded from public records
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Commerce City (town): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 174 in GA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Commerce Middle School (math 44% / reading 51%, grade C-, #84 of 470 statewide, top 19%, 530 students, 56% FRL); Commerce High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #37 of 424 statewide, top 9%, 493 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,531 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.24%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,208
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Andy Ct	0.61mi	2/1.0	725 (-0%)	6mo	$195,000	$269	66
173 Baugh St	0.72mi	2/1.0	728 (0%)	4mo	$117,500	$161	63
121 Brookwood Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0	832 (+14%)	9mo	$90,000	$108	49
170 Duncan Cir	0.37mi	2/1.0	810 (+11%)	24mo	$88,400	$109	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $89,999
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $267,636
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30529

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,630/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,569

Max offer price $160,958

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1736 N Broad St Unit 201 Commerce, GA	1.0	1.0	676	$1,300	$1.92	43d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    statuslisting id $195,000 Active 1 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    remarks 672-char remark
17. 2026-05-30
    listed $195,000 New 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,630 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,794 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$164/yr (+$14/mo · 10.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,630
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,272
• − Management: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$5,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,402
• After-tax cash flow: $-910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commerce City
• NCES district ID: 1301440
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,945
• Composite: 41.1/100
• National rank: #3567
• State rank: #19 of 174 in GA

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #14693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commerce, GA
• County: Jackson County · 50,436 people
• City population: 12,874
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• Population (ZIP): 12,874
• Household income: $62,168
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 297.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,403 people
• By 2030: 70,771 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 75,050 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 78,022 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 82,646 · +20.8%
• By 2100: 80,701 · +18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 22.2% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -55.9pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+55.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.53%
• Current HPI: 458.5304
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.25%
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+242.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $195,000 GAMLS
• 2024-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-23 Sold (MLS) $175,000 GAMLS
• 2024-02-11 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-01-08 Price Changed $179,900 GAMLS
• 2023-12-18 Price Changed $189,900 GAMLS
• 2023-11-14 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $199,500 GAMLS
• 2023-10-30 Price Changed $200,500 GAMLS
• 2023-10-09 Price Changed $200,900 GAMLS
• 2023-07-23 Listed $201,000 GAMLS
• 2023-07-23 Listed $194,900 GAMLS
• 2023-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,630 · +159.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.