515 Don Ln

Itasca, TX 76055

$201,990C-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 190 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,722/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,059
• Tax + insurance: −$337
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-424/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $56,557

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $202k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-424/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (14.7% below list).
• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $240k (54%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.