515 Don Ln · Itasca, TX 76055

$201,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 190 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,663 sqft lot $126/sqft · at area comps Est $212k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21130140 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades The Everglades Plan from our Freedom Series offers an ideal blend of space, functionality, and value. This charming 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,600 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Step into the welcoming entryway, where you’ll find a convenient half bathroom and the staircase leading to the upper level. Continue down the hall past the laundry room and into the open-concept living area. The kitchen, complete with a central island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating a perfect space for meals and family time. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with its own bathroom. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom complete the upper level, providing ample space for guests.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $202k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-424/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $240k (54%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $172,226 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,525
• List price: $201,990
• Delta: -4.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Beard Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,562 (-2%)	3mo	$130,000	$83	80
605 S Files St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (+4%)	4mo	$224,900	$135	75
512 Don Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-6%)	8mo	$249,900	$166	75
604 E South St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (-4%)	3mo	$249,999	$163	69
526 Don Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,401 (-12%)	10mo	$182,990	$131	66
106 Don Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-12%)	13mo	$225,000	$161	57
205 E South St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,462 (-9%)	7mo	$219,900	$150	57
104 Don Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-12%)	14mo	$225,000	$161	56
202 E Henderson St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (-7%)	13mo	$198,000	$133	52
105 E North St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-6%)	2mo	$158,000	$105	49
705 E South St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-11%)	10mo	$214,900	$150	48
103 S Hooks St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-12%)	12mo	$282,000	$199	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $107,785
• Equity at exit: $181,969

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $319,231
• Equity at exit: $392,422

Cash invested: $56,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,059
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$252 /mo · $3,030/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,767

Max offer price $196,879

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,498
• Closing costs: $6,060
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	43d	1	0.26mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	11d	1	0.36mi
108 E Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	43d	1	0.43mi
106 W Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	43d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $201,990 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $201,990 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $201,990 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $201,990 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $201,990 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $201,990 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $201,990 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $201,990 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $201,990 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $201,990 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $201,990 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $201,990 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $201,990 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $201,990 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $209,990 866-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

16. 2026-05-14
    price $209,990 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

17. 2026-04-03
    price $226,990 866-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

18. 2026-04-03
    price $226,990 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

19. 2026-03-31
    price $222,990 866-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

20. 2026-03-31
    price $222,990 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

21. 2026-03-31
    price $223,990 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

22. 2025-12-12
    price $222,211 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

23. 2025-12-10
    listed $442,201 Active 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (866 chars)

    MLS# 21130140 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades The Everglades Plan from our Freedom Series offers an ideal blend of space, functionality, and value. This charming 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,600 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Step into the welcoming entryway, where you’ll find a convenient half bathroom and the staircase leading to the upper level. Continue down the hall past the laundry room and into the open-concept living area. The kitchen, complete with a central island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating a perfect space for meals and family time. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with its own bathroom. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom complete the upper level, providing ample space for guests.

24. 2025-12-10
    listed $222,211 Active 866-char remark

    Show marketing remark (866 chars)

    MLS# 21130140 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades The Everglades Plan from our Freedom Series offers an ideal blend of space, functionality, and value. This charming 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,600 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Step into the welcoming entryway, where you’ll find a convenient half bathroom and the staircase leading to the upper level. Continue down the hall past the laundry room and into the open-concept living area. The kitchen, complete with a central island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating a perfect space for meals and family time. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with its own bathroom. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom complete the upper level, providing ample space for guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,315
• − Property taxes: −$3,030
• − Insurance: −$1,010
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$5,876
• Taxable loss: −$3,870
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$929
• After-tax cash flow: $505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a fresh paint job and modern finishes. It's move-in ready and ready for a smart home upgrade to add value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $209,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $209,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $226,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $226,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $222,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $222,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $223,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $222,211 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $442,201 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $222,211 NTREIS