131 Wheaton Ln

Bel Air South, MD 21028

$525,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$44
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $260/mo
• Annual: $3,118/yr
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.12%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (14.3% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $450k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Churchville Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #260 of 860 statewide, top 33%, 374 students, 23% FRL); Southampton Middle (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #43 of 225 statewide, top 20%, 1,175 students, 21% FRL); C. Milton Wright High (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B-, #59 of 222 statewide, top 27%, 1,266 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $147k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.