131 Wheaton Ln · Bel Air South, MD 21028

$525,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1977 1.05 ac lot $367/sqft · 26% above area Est $417k · 26% over $44/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable community of Priestford Hills, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath rancher sits on slightly over an acre and has an expansive composite deck overlooking community green space and partial lake views. Hardwood floors throughout the main level (except for kitchen and bathrooms) add warmth to the space, as well as a cozy wood burning fireplace with brick hearth in the living room. New 3-ton dual-stage Rheem heat pump installed in January of 2026! Many other updates over the past several years include: Newer Carolina bead vinyl siding, newer roof with 50-year architectural shingles, newer kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, newer stove, Bosch dishwasher, and Corian countertops,

Key facts

• 1.05 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual HOA fee of $525; Community amenities include a lake and other common features

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with inside access (1-car); Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: Private water; Private septic tank; Electric service (150 Amps)
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Architectural shingle roof; Good condition; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Water access to a community lake; Lot with approximately 136' dimension

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range/oven; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level; Master bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile/brick; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (including master bath and a second full bath on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with oil backup; Electric heating components; Central air conditioning; 150 amp electric service; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Wood floors; Combination kitchen and dining area; Walk-in shower; Tub with shower; Drywall walls and ceilings; Full walkout basement; One wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $450k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Churchville Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #260 of 860 statewide, top 33%, 374 students, 23% FRL); Southampton Middle (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #43 of 225 statewide, top 20%, 1,175 students, 21% FRL); C. Milton Wright High (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B-, #59 of 222 statewide, top 27%, 1,266 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $147k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $450,000 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.12%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,562
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: 26.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $63,878
• Equity at exit: $219,278

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $224,191
• Equity at exit: $325,420

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21028

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,351/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,171

Max offer price $525,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $557	-5% $408	+0% $260	+5% $111	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-96	-5% $82	+0% $260	+5% $438	+10% $615
Rate	-1.0pp $524	-0.5pp $393	base $260	+0.5pp $124	+1.0pp $-15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Calvary Rd Churchville, MD	3.0	1.5	1373	$4,500	$3.28	45d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $525,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-05-19
   historical Active Under Contract 930-char remark
3. 2026-05-02
   listed $525,000 Active 930-char remark
4. 2026-05-02
   historical $525,000 930-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,351 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,537 · $378/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,186/yr (+$99/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$3,351
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,320
• − Management: −$4,320
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $4,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 63,895
• Population (ZIP): 2,872

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.43%
• Current HPI: 263.1997
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $525,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-02 Coming Soon $525,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2019): $3,351 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.