8743 Turkey Ridge Rd

Upper Macungie, PA 18031

$70,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,367/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$1,131
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $189/mo
• Annual: $2,268/yr
• Cap rate: 10.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.64%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 3.38%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $503 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Parkland SD (suburban): math 59% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 48% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $70k implies a 438% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.