8743 Turkey Ridge Rd · Upper Macungie, PA 18031

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 34 Days on market

Built 1973 435 sqft lot $56/sqft · at area comps Est $67k · at est. $1131/mo HOA · 48% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Double Wide Priced To Sell, Features Sliding Glass Doors To Covered Porch, Master Bedroom Suite, Freshly Painted, Oil Heat, Ceiling Fans, Washer, Dryer & Refrigerator Remain, 2 Wall Unit Ac, Covered Front Deck, Water, Sewer And Trash Included In Lot Fees. For More Information Call Jim At 610-465-5512.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1973
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee $1,131 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Utilities: Community/Coop water; Community/Coop sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Single-story/mobile home; Built-up roof
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Year built: Unknown
• Exterior features: Mobile home on the lot; Lot zoning R5

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 16 x 9); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 13)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the first floor (approx. 9 x 7 and 8 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dining area; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Parkland SD (suburban): math 59% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $503 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $70k implies a 438% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 48% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.64%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,803
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: 4.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8719 Turkey Ridge Rd	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	6mo	$69,000	$62	77
8726 Breinig Run Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	5mo	$77,000	$67	74
1012 Spruce Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	3mo	$75,000	$56	62
8914 Breinig Run Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	13mo	$53,000	$44	60
8850 Turkey Ridge Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	11mo	$20,000	$15	60
8865 Breinig Run Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	2mo	$92,500	$69	57
8727 Evergreen Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	10mo	$50,000	$37	56
8902 Breinig Run Cir	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-8%)	6mo	$75,000	$65	54
8722 Evergreen Cir	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-14%)	9mo	$57,000	$53	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.72% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $5,886
• Equity at exit: $17,849

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $20,174
• Equity at exit: $19,567

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18031

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$1,131
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,128

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8749 Breinig Run Cir Breinigsville, PA	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,695	$1.65	2d	1	0.25mi
1208 Martin Rd Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,450	$1.63	43d	1	0.42mi
1273 Martin Rd Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,550	$1.70	43d	1	0.43mi
1175 Susan Cir Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,600	$1.73	43d	1	0.51mi
1177 Susan Cir Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	43d	1	0.51mi
1145 Martin Rd Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	2d	1	0.52mi
8328 Fair Way Breinigsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,600	$1.73	23d	1	0.53mi
8395 Saylor Ct Breinigsville, PA	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,100	$1.99	14d	1	0.58mi
1447 Artisan Ct Breinigsville, PA	2.0	1.5	1056	$2,150	$2.04	14d	1	0.59mi
1055 Cetronia Rd Breinigsville, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$2,355	$2.15	2d	8	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,131 · $13,572/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $70,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    status Pending 336-char remark
17. 2026-05-10
    listed $75,000 Active 336-char remark
18. 2000-06-16
    soldstatus $13,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    DOUBLE WIDE PRICED TO SELL, FEATURES SLIDING GLASS DOORS TO COVERED PORCH, MASTER BEDROOM SUITE, FRESHLY PAINTED, OIL HEAT, CEILING FANS, WASHER, DRYER & REFRIGERATOR REMAIN, 2 WALL UNIT AC, COVERED FRONT DECK, WATER, SEWER AND TRASH INCLUDED IN LOT FEES. FOR MORE INFORMATION CALL JIM AT 610-465-5512.

19. 2000-06-16
    soldstatus $13,000

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    DOUBLE WIDE PRICED TO SELL, FEATURES SLIDING GLASS DOORS TO COVERED PORCH, MASTER BEDROOM SUITE, FRESHLY PAINTED, OIL HEAT, CEILING FANS, WASHER, DRYER & REFRIGERATOR REMAIN, 2 WALL UNIT AC, COVERED FRONT DECK, WATER, SEWER AND TRASH INCLUDED IN LOT FEES. FOR MORE INFORMATION CALL JIM AT 610-465-5512.

20. 2000-05-04
    listed $15,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    DOUBLE WIDE PRICED TO SELL, FEATURES SLIDING GLASS DOORS TO COVERED PORCH, MASTER BEDROOM SUITE, FRESHLY PAINTED, OIL HEAT, CEILING FANS, WASHER, DRYER & REFRIGERATOR REMAIN, 2 WALL UNIT AC, COVERED FRONT DECK, WATER, SEWER AND TRASH INCLUDED IN LOT FEES. FOR MORE INFORMATION CALL JIM AT 610-465-5512.

21. 2000-05-04
    listed $15,000

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    DOUBLE WIDE PRICED TO SELL, FEATURES SLIDING GLASS DOORS TO COVERED PORCH, MASTER BEDROOM SUITE, FRESHLY PAINTED, OIL HEAT, CEILING FANS, WASHER, DRYER & REFRIGERATOR REMAIN, 2 WALL UNIT AC, COVERED FRONT DECK, WATER, SEWER AND TRASH INCLUDED IN LOT FEES. FOR MORE INFORMATION CALL JIM AT 610-465-5512.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,273
• − Management: −$2,273
• − HOA: −$13,572
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,136
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$513
• After-tax cash flow: $1,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkland SD
• NCES district ID: 4218510
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $77,976
• Composite: 57.44/100
• National rank: #1074
• State rank: #40 of 539 in PA

Livability — Upper Macungie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Breinigsville, PA
• County: Lehigh County · 333,019 people
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 11,570
• Household income: $113,625
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 52.0

Population outlook (Lehigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,957 people
• By 2030: 408,319 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 440,007 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 475,940 · +21.1%
• By 2075: 590,448 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 690,314 · +75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 17% Asian 12% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Polish 4% Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, United Kingdom, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lehigh

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 2.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.7 2020: D+7.6 2016: D+4.4 2012: D+7.5 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.72%
• Current HPI: 267.8218
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+366.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $70,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-10 Listed $75,000 GLVRMLS
• 2000-06-16 Sold (MLS) $13,000 PMAR
• 2000-06-16 Sold (MLS) $13,000 GLVRMLS
• 2000-05-04 Listed $15,000 PMAR
• 2000-05-04 Listed $15,000 GLVRMLS