3144 Ashdon Dr

Newburgh, IN 47630

$364,700D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,152 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 273 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,473/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,913
• Tax + insurance: −$376
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-385/mo
• Annual: $-4,614/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $102,116

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (32.2% below list).
• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $247k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#21 in IN, #1,922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 395 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Newburgh — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.