3144 Ashdon Dr · Newburgh, IN 47630

$364,700

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 273 Days on market

Built 2022 7,405 sqft lot $169/sqft · at area comps Est $385k · 5% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOVE WHERE YOU LIVE! This Energy Smart two-story home boasts a Modern-Farmhouse exterior, 9' ceilings, four bedrooms, and 2.5 baths. As you enter through the foyer, you'll be captivated by the open and airy living room. The large eat-in kitchen, complete with an island, seamlessly connects to the dining and living room, creating a perfect space for morning coffee or additional seating when entertaining. All bedrooms are located on the second floor, including the owner’s suite, which provides a private retreat with a full bath and a spacious walk-in closet. The outdoor patio, conveniently located off the dining area, is ideal for grilling and outdoor relaxation.

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Private retreat
• Island

Tags

• MODERN-FARMHOUSE EXTERIOR
• OPEN AND AIRY LIVING ROOM
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ISLAND
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• PRIVATE RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Newburgh — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#21 in IN, #1,922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 395 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,294 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,800
• List price: $364,700
• Delta: -5.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4689 Chelmsford Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,149 (-0%)	1mo	$355,800	$166	96
4800 Chelmsford Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,149 (-0%)	2mo	$362,800	$169	92
4704 Chelmsford Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,149 (-0%)	10mo	$380,800	$177	89
4884 Alaina Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,151 (-0%)	1mo	$369,800	$172	86
3175 Goswell Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,151 (-0%)	0mo	$384,800	$179	85
3087 Hyland Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,149 (-0%)	15mo	$379,000	$176	78
3139 Dowgate Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,151 (-0%)	13mo	$378,800	$176	77
4744 Alaina Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,149 (-0%)	20mo	$369,800	$172	77
4633 Jackson Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,149 (-0%)	22mo	$367,800	$171	76
4764 Alaina Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,149 (-0%)	21mo	$375,800	$175	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-70,594
• Equity at exit: $54,378

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-33,828
• Equity at exit: $31,533

Cash invested: $102,116 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47630

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 395
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,913
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,684/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,960

Max offer price $296,772

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-178	-5% $-281	+0% $-385	+5% $-488	+10% $-591
Rent	-10% $-580	-5% $-482	+0% $-385	+5% $-287	+10% $-189
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-292	base $-385	+0.5pp $-479	+1.0pp $-575

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,175
• Closing costs: $10,941
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4734 Alaina Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.5	1571	$2,495	$1.59	23d	1	0.11mi
4817 White Chapel Dr Newburgh, IN	4.0	2.5	2791	$2,600	$0.93	23d	1	0.69mi
5756 Waterstone Dr Newburgh, IN	5.0	3.0	2624	$3,300	$1.26	45d	1	1.07mi
2966 Megan Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,550	$1.51	15d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $364,700 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $364,700 Active 270 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $364,700 Active 269 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $364,700 Active 268 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $364,700 Active 267 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $364,700 Active 265 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $364,700 Active 264 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $364,700 Active 262 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $364,700 Active 261 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $364,700 Active 260 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $364,700 Active 259 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $364,700 Active 254 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $364,700 Active 253 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $364,700 Active 252 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $364,700 Active 251 DOM
16. 2025-09-19
    listed $364,700 Active 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    LOVE WHERE YOU LIVE! This Energy Smart two-story home boasts a Modern-Farmhouse exterior, 9' ceilings, four bedrooms, and 2.5 baths. As you enter through the foyer, you'll be captivated by the open and airy living room. The large eat-in kitchen, complete with an island, seamlessly connects to the dining and living room, creating a perfect space for morning coffee or additional seating when entertaining. All bedrooms are located on the second floor, including the owner’s suite, which provides a private retreat with a full bath and a spacious walk-in closet. The outdoor patio, conveniently located off the dining area, is ideal for grilling and outdoor relaxation.

17. 2025-08-19
    status Pending
18. 2025-02-14
    listed $368,800 Active
19. 2024-10-10
    listed $375,800 Active
20. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus $359,845 Closed
21. 2022-03-29
    listed $359,845
22. 2022-03-29
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,684 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,892 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$208/yr (+$17/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,429
• − Property taxes: −$2,684
• − Insurance: −$1,824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,374
• − Management: −$2,374
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$10,609
• Taxable loss: −$11,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,692
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrick County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1812390
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,801
• Composite: 49.38/100
• National rank: #2014
• State rank: #24 of 301 in IN

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #1922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warrick County · 39,818 people
• City population: 39,818
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 39,818
• Household income: $94,162
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (Warrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,569 people
• By 2030: 68,404 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 71,131 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 72,743 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 76,088 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 72,261 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.1% · R 64.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.44%
• Current HPI: 185.7643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-19 Listed $364,700 IRMLS
• 2025-08-19 Pending — IRMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listed $368,800 IRMLS
• 2024-10-10 Listed $375,800 IRMLS
• 2022-08-05 Sold (MLS) $359,845 IRMLS
• 2022-03-29 Delisted — IRMLS
• 2022-03-29 Listed $359,845 IRMLS

Property tax history

+1651.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,684 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.