247 Netley Br

Belfry, KY 41543

$119,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 259 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $908/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $-75/mo
• Annual: $-900/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-900/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (23.7% below list).
• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#374 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.