247 Netley Br · Belfry, KY 41543

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 259 Days on market

Built 1992 10 ac lot $155/sqft · 101% above area Est $143k · 17% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country location at end of road with hillside acreage offers privacy with full covered front porch for relaxing. Most necessities and W. Va border within 20 minutes.

Key facts

• Privacy
• Hillside acreage
• 10.4 acre lot

Tags

• HILLSIDE ACREAGE
• FULL COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-900/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $91k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#374 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,807 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,419
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -17.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,341
• Equity at exit: $46,896

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $26,657
• Equity at exit: $67,501

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41543

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $908 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $627/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,003

Max offer price $105,755

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 259 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 258 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 257 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 256 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 254 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 249 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 247 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 243 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 242 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 241 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 240 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $119,000 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Country location at end of road with hillside acreage offers privacy with full covered front porch for relaxing. Most necessities and W. Va border within 20 minutes.

17. 2026-03-26
    status Active 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Country location at end of road with hillside acreage offers privacy with full covered front porch for relaxing. Most necessities and W. Va border within 20 minutes.

18. 2026-03-13
    status Pending 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Country location at end of road with hillside acreage offers privacy with full covered front porch for relaxing. Most necessities and W. Va border within 20 minutes.

19. 2025-09-19
    listed $122,000 Active 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Country location at end of road with hillside acreage offers privacy with full covered front porch for relaxing. Most necessities and W. Va border within 20 minutes.

20. 2024-04-22
    price $139,900
21. 2023-10-27
    price $144,900
22. 2023-09-05
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $627 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 63.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$627
• − Insurance: −$1,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$872
• − Management: −$872
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$2,994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$719
• After-tax cash flow: $-181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Belfry

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #17694

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 460

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Pacific Islander 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.99%
• Current HPI: 121.3702
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $119,000 EKAR
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — EKAR
• 2026-03-13 Pending — EKAR
• 2025-09-19 Listed $122,000 EKAR
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $139,900 EKAR
• 2023-10-27 Price Changed $144,900 EKAR
• 2023-09-05 Listed $149,900 EKAR

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $627 · +1203.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.