2505 SW Grotto Cir

Port St. Lucie, FL 34953

$439,900F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,011/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$290
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-218/mo
• Annual: $-2,620/yr
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $123,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $401k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (31.6% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $301k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bayshore Elementary School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 835 students, 70% FRL); Treasure Coast High School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 3,066 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 758 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $440k implies a 252% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.