7785 Ginger Ln

Lumberton, TX 77657

$275,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,370/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$435
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-53/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-53/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (13.8% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $237k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.