7785 Ginger Ln · Lumberton, TX 77657

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1975 0.53 ac lot Est $317k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Four bedrooms two bathrooms two car detached garage home. Recently updated. Must see to appreciate. Very large fenced background, shop attached to the garage, all wood, and tile flooring. Call for an appointment to see inside. Never Flooded. Pets allowed with $200 non refundable deposit. Call for appointment to see inside. $1000 deposit.

Key facts

• Half acre
• New appliances
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• HALF ACRE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-53/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,028 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,392
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7621 Clearview Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,774 (-7%)	5mo	$295,000	$166	58
240 Wren St	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,626 (-15%)	8mo	$269,900	$166	30
200 Pinata Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,653 (-14%)	11mo	$175,000	$106	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-44,822
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-39,305
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$320 /mo · $3,843/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,376

Max offer price $274,221

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 Winding Brook Dr Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	2455	$3,000	$1.22	23d	1	0.66mi
187 S Lhs Dr Lumberton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1107	$1,668	$1.51	13d	1	0.72mi
40 Candlelight Ln Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,000	$1.23	43d	1	0.77mi
40 Candlelight Ln Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,000	$1.23	23d	1	0.77mi
8445 Harvard St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1295	$1,790	$1.38	23d	1	1.35mi
65 Hooks Rd Lumberton, TX	4.0	2.0	2174	$1,600	$0.74	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricelisting id $275,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2012-04-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,190/yr (+$99/mo · 31.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,843
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,275
• − Management: −$2,275
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,729
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,135
• After-tax cash flow: $1,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,996
• Composite: 43.2/100
• National rank: #3063
• State rank: #173 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lumberton, TX
• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,843 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.