103 Autumn Ln

Towamensing Trails, PA 18229

$219,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,762 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,956/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$392
• HOA: −$65
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-718/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-718/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (10.7% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,361 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jim Thorpe Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #394 of 539 in PA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carbon County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Towamensing Trails — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.