103 Autumn Ln · Towamensing Trails, PA 18229

$219,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,762 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1987 1.03 ac lot $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.03 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-718/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Towamensing Trails — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,361 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jim Thorpe Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #394 of 539 in PA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carbon County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,613 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $481,026
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Stony Creek Rd	0.53mi	4/3.0	1,741 (-1%)	7mo	$475,000	$273	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-39,210
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-38,698
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18229

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,605/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,032

Max offer price $208,437

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   soldstatus $221,000
2. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-19
   listed $219,000 Active
4. 2005-03-18
   soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,605 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,605 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,605
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$4,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,056
• After-tax cash flow: $339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jim Thorpe Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4212540
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,476
• Composite: 31.42/100
• National rank: #5988
• State rank: #394 of 539 in PA

Livability — Towamensing Trails

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #1361
• US rank: #16977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Carbon County · 13,404 people
• City population: 7,879
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 9,248
• Household income: $66,875
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 192.0

Population outlook (Carbon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,643 people
• By 2030: 59,840 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 55,413 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 50,843 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 43,326 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 37,126 · -39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Carbon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.8) · D 32.2% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.9pp · 2024: -34.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.8 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+6.9 2008: D+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.52%
• Current HPI: 204.2201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+84.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $221,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-27 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-02-19 Listed $219,000 PMAR
• 2005-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,605 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.