1047 14th St #39

Thermalito, CA 95965

$22,500C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,149/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$118
• Tax + insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $752/mo
• Annual: $9,024/yr
• Cap rate: 46.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 143.24%
• DSCR: 7.37
• 1% rule: 5.11%
• Cash to close: $6,300

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $22k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $752 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $21k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $156 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $675 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,221 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: cost of living D+, schools F, crime F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 46.4% vs local median 3.6% in Thermalito — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Light wear and tear.
• Minor: Kitchen countertops — Light wear and tear.
• Minor: Bathroom sink and countertop — Light wear and tear.
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Significant wear and tear.
• Minor: Front porch — Sunflower decoration is visible, but the overall condition is fair.