1047 14th St #39 · Thermalito, CA 95965

$22,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 63 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition Est $37k · 40% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATED IN A 55+ SENIOR PARK. Clean and updated little cutie!! Covered porch with stairs and ramp! Off-street driveway. Newer flooring throughout. Comes with beautiful kitchen appliances.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Covered front deck
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED FRONT DECK
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 1047 14th St #39, Oroville, CA; Directions: Oro Dam to 14th St
• Financial info: Land lease of $700/month
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community (Chateau MH Estates); Community amenities include a lake and street lighting

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (12' x 60'); Mobile home remains on property; Has a view
• Construction: Year built: unspecified
• Exterior features: Front yard; No pool

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: Entry on main level; Main-level entry location
• Laundry & utility: On-site laundry (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $22k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $752 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.4% vs local median 3.6% in Thermalito — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,221 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: cost of living D+, schools F, crime F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $156 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $675 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,150 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 143.24%
• DSCR: 7.37
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $37,440
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1023 14th St Unit 17A	0.03mi	2/2.0 (+1)	720 (0%)	2mo	$15,500	$22	88
1047 14th St #18	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (-7%)	0mo	$35,000	$52	84
1047 14th	0.03mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (-7%)	0mo	$35,000	$52	82
1616 Oro Dm W #27	0.15mi	2/1.0 (+1)	784 (+9%)	3mo	$49,000	$63	71
1047 14th St #3	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	687 (-5%)	22mo	$11,500	$17	69
1023 14th St Unit 11A	0.03mi	2/1.0 (+1)	780 (+8%)	22mo	$40,000	$51	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.82×
• Total profit: $42,988
• Equity at exit: $3,355

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.93×
• Total profit: $94,041
• Equity at exit: $1,945

Cash invested: $6,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95965

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$118
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$28 /mo · $338/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $752

Break-even live

Break-even rent $197

Max offer price $22,500

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,625
• Closing costs: $675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $22,500 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $22,500 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $22,500 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $22,500 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $22,500 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $22,500 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $22,500 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $22,500 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $22,500 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $22,500 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $22,500 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $22,500 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $22,500 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $22,500 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $22,500 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    price $22,500
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $25,000 Active
18. 2024-11-12
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed Sale 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    LOCATED IN A 55+ SENIOR PARK. Clean and updated little cutie!! Covered porch with stairs and ramp! Off-street driveway. Newer flooring throughout. Comes with beautiful kitchen appliances.

19. 2024-10-31
    status Pending Sale 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    LOCATED IN A 55+ SENIOR PARK. Clean and updated little cutie!! Covered porch with stairs and ramp! Off-street driveway. Newer flooring throughout. Comes with beautiful kitchen appliances.

20. 2024-09-20
    price $27,500 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    LOCATED IN A 55+ SENIOR PARK. Clean and updated little cutie!! Covered porch with stairs and ramp! Off-street driveway. Newer flooring throughout. Comes with beautiful kitchen appliances.

21. 2024-03-19
    listed $34,900 Active 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    LOCATED IN A 55+ SENIOR PARK. Clean and updated little cutie!! Covered porch with stairs and ramp! Off-street driveway. Newer flooring throughout. Comes with beautiful kitchen appliances.

22. 2023-10-19
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed Sale 481-char remark

    Show marketing remark (481 chars)

    Don't miss your oppurtunity ! This cozy mobile home is ready for you. As you walk into the home you can see the open concept design making the most of the space. The living room blends into the dinning room and kitchen giving you maximum usage. The bathroom has been recently remodeled to a walk in shower making it very accessible for most people. Outside under the covered front porch you will find a shed equipped with laundry hook ups for you. Come and see you this home today!

23. 2023-10-09
    historical Active Under Contract 481-char remark

    Show marketing remark (481 chars)

    Don't miss your oppurtunity ! This cozy mobile home is ready for you. As you walk into the home you can see the open concept design making the most of the space. The living room blends into the dinning room and kitchen giving you maximum usage. The bathroom has been recently remodeled to a walk in shower making it very accessible for most people. Outside under the covered front porch you will find a shed equipped with laundry hook ups for you. Come and see you this home today!

24. 2023-09-28
    listed $30,000 Active 481-char remark

    Show marketing remark (481 chars)

    Don't miss your oppurtunity ! This cozy mobile home is ready for you. As you walk into the home you can see the open concept design making the most of the space. The living room blends into the dinning room and kitchen giving you maximum usage. The bathroom has been recently remodeled to a walk in shower making it very accessible for most people. Outside under the covered front porch you will find a shed equipped with laundry hook ups for you. Come and see you this home today!

25. 2021-07-07
    soldstatus $24,900 Closed Sale
26. 2021-07-05
    status Pending Sale
27. 2021-06-10
    historical Active Under Contract
28. 2021-03-10
    listed $24,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,260
• − Property taxes: −$338
• − Insurance: −$112
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − Depreciation: −$655
• Taxable income: $9,215
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,211
• After-tax cash flow: $6,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on the exterior siding and interior walls. Upgrades to the kitchen and bathroom, along with fresh paint and landscaping, can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Light wear and tear.
• Minor Kitchen countertops — Light wear and tear.
• Minor Bathroom sink and countertop — Light wear and tear.
• Moderate Exterior siding — Significant wear and tear.
• Minor Front porch — Sunflower decoration is visible, but the overall condition is fair.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value.
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets and countertops — New cabinets and countertops can significantly improve the kitchen's functionality and appearance.
• Both Replace bathroom sink and countertop — New sink and countertop can improve the bathroom's functionality and appearance.
• Both Replace exterior siding — New siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Light wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen countertops · Light wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom sink and countertop · Light wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Significant wear and tear.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Front porch · Sunflower decoration is visible, but the overall condition is fair.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$5,000–27,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value. ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets and countertops — New cabinets and countertops can significantly improve the kitchen's functionality and appearance. ↑
• Both Replace bathroom sink and countertop — New sink and countertop can improve the bathroom's functionality and appearance. ↑
• Both Replace exterior siding — New siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Thermalito

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1221
• US rank: #26164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thermalito, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,181
• Household income: $53,198
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 892.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 20% Asian 16% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.76%
• Current HPI: 317.0277
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $22,500 CRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $25,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-12 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-31 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $27,500 CRMLS
• 2024-03-19 Listed $34,900 CRMLS
• 2023-10-19 Sold (MLS) $30,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-09 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-09-28 Listed $30,000 CRMLS
• 2021-07-07 Sold (MLS) $24,900 CRMLS
• 2021-07-05 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-06-10 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-03-10 Listed $24,900 CRMLS