267 Lake Shore Dr E

Dunkirk, NY 14048

$77,500A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,167 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$406
• Tax + insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $430/mo
• Annual: $5,163/yr
• Cap rate: 12.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.79%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $21,700

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($536 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.