29031 Stony Point Rd

Cape Vincent, NY 13618

$158,000C

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,678 sqft · Built 1878 · SingleFamily · Pending · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,483/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $76/mo
• Annual: $913/yr
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $44,240

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($913/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (6.1% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#615 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Thousand Islands Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #262 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.