29031 Stony Point Rd · Cape Vincent, NY 13618

$158,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,678 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1878 6.95 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

They say the second time is a charm and you now have another chance at this incredible opportunity to restore this 3 story farmhouse to it's original Glory. .. and at a lower price point than before. This gem went under contract extremely quickly last time we were listed, unfortunately after a long wait the sale did not go though, by no fault of the seller, so now they are motivated to get this one to the finish line. Located on 6.95 level acres in the Thousand Islands school district, it is just a short distance to Wilson's Bay and Mud bay!!! There is a beautiful black 4 year old metal roof with sky lights, most windows are newer and a good portion of the exterior has been vinyl sided. This home boasts 15 rooms, and the configurations for living arrangements are numerous. The first floor consists of an entry/living room from the side door, a second living room, kitchen and dining addition with an island and walk-in pantry, a study/den with original wooden double doors and another bonus room off of that (this could also be used as a first floor bedroom with massive walk in closet)and a full bath. On the second floor you will find 4 good sized bedrooms, a full bath and a generous laundry room. The third floor has another full bath and 3 more bedrooms that could also be used as an office, work out room, crafting room -the possibilities are endless with the space this home has to offer. Featuring an original stair banister and some molding, large hallway landings on the second and third floors and great sized rooms with water views from the rear bedrooms, this home is just waiting for your vision to be renovated, completed and made into your dream property. This home has the capacity to become one of the most breathtaking in the area. Call today!

Key facts

• Level acres
• Vinyl sided
• Metal roof

Tags

• LEVEL ACRES
• METAL ROOF
• SKYLIGHTS
• VINYL SIDED
• WALK IN PANTRY
• ORIGINAL WOODEN DOUBLE DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($913/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#615 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Thousand Islands Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #262 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $148,294 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $84,419
• Equity at exit: $135,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $243,324
• Equity at exit: $284,973

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13618

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,412/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,387

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $158,000 Pending 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $158,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $158,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $158,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $158,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-03-12
   listed $158,000 Active 1773-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1773 chars)

   They say the second time is a charm and you now have another chance at this incredible opportunity to restore this 3 story farmhouse to it's original Glory. .. and at a lower price point than before. This gem went under contract extremely quickly last time we were listed, unfortunately after a long wait the sale did not go though, by no fault of the seller, so now they are motivated to get this one to the finish line. Located on 6.95 level acres in the Thousand Islands school district, it is just a short distance to Wilson's Bay and Mud bay!!! There is a beautiful black 4 year old metal roof with sky lights, most windows are newer and a good portion of the exterior has been vinyl sided. This home boasts 15 rooms, and the configurations for living arrangements are numerous. The first floor consists of an entry/living room from the side door, a second living room, kitchen and dining addition with an island and walk-in pantry, a study/den with original wooden double doors and another bonus room off of that (this could also be used as a first floor bedroom with massive walk in closet)and a full bath. On the second floor you will find 4 good sized bedrooms, a full bath and a generous laundry room. The third floor has another full bath and 3 more bedrooms that could also be used as an office, work out room, crafting room -the possibilities are endless with the space this home has to offer. Featuring an original stair banister and some molding, large hallway landings on the second and third floors and great sized rooms with water views from the rear bedrooms, this home is just waiting for your vision to be renovated, completed and made into your dream property. This home has the capacity to become one of the most breathtaking in the area. Call today!

7. 2025-10-26
   historical
8. 2025-09-18
   status Active
9. 2025-05-22
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2025-05-06
    listed $174,900 Active
11. 2006-09-05
    soldstatus $132,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,412 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,541 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$129/yr (+$11/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,412
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,424
• − Management: −$1,424
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$1,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$408
• After-tax cash flow: $1,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thousand Islands Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607650
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,233
• Composite: 49.94/100
• National rank: #1930
• State rank: #262 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cape Vincent

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #11167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,696

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.40%
• Current HPI: 360.5985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+19.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $158,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-26 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-09-18 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-05-22 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $174,900 CNYIS
• 2006-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,412 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.