1310 Birdsong Rd

Petersburg, VA 23805

$229,950C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,677 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,888/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $23/mo
• Annual: $279/yr
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $64,386

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($279/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (17.9% below list).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Prince George County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #16 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 72 units permitted in Prince George County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.