1310 Birdsong Rd · Petersburg, VA 23805

$229,950

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,677 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1952 1.08 ac lot $137/sqft · 32% below area Est $337k · 32% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision to this unique property offering 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with a spacious layout including a living room, dining area, kitchen, great room, laundry room, and two enclosed porches. Hardwood floors are in place and ready to be refreshed. Situated on 1.08 acres directly across from a scenic pond, the setting offers peaceful views and a rare backdrop. Above the detached garage, you’ll find additional space with two rooms, a bathroom, and a kitchenette area that is ideal for guests or flexible use (buyer to verify). A large brick storage building adds even more versatility. With acreage, multiple structures, and a beautiful setting, this property is a great opportunity to update and make your own.

Key facts

• 2 bedroom apartment
• Water views
• 1.08 acres

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• 2 BEDROOM APARTMENT
• WATER VIEWS
• LARGE BRICK STORAGE BUILDING
• 1.08 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($279/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Prince George County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #16 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 72 units permitted in Prince George County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,802 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,373
• List price: $229,950
• Delta: -31.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,827
• Equity at exit: $34,286

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-29,477
• Equity at exit: $19,882

Cash invested: $64,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23805

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $1,999/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,859

Max offer price $229,950

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,488
• Closing costs: $6,898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1711 Birdsong Rd Unit S Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1536	$1,895	$1.23	14d	1	0.46mi
200 Addison Way Petersburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$1,873	$1.89	1d	73	1.04mi
709B Fort Hayes Ct Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1628	$1,795	$1.10	14d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 725-char remark

   Show marketing remark (725 chars)

   Bring your vision to this unique property offering 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with a spacious layout including a living room, dining area, kitchen, great room, laundry room, and two enclosed porches. Hardwood floors are in place and ready to be refreshed. Situated on 1.08 acres directly across from a scenic pond, the setting offers peaceful views and a rare backdrop. Above the detached garage, you’ll find additional space with two rooms, a bathroom, and a kitchenette area that is ideal for guests or flexible use (buyer to verify). A large brick storage building adds even more versatility. With acreage, multiple structures, and a beautiful setting, this property is a great opportunity to update and make your own.

2. 2026-03-12
   price $229,950 725-char remark

   Show marketing remark (725 chars)

   Bring your vision to this unique property offering 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with a spacious layout including a living room, dining area, kitchen, great room, laundry room, and two enclosed porches. Hardwood floors are in place and ready to be refreshed. Situated on 1.08 acres directly across from a scenic pond, the setting offers peaceful views and a rare backdrop. Above the detached garage, you’ll find additional space with two rooms, a bathroom, and a kitchenette area that is ideal for guests or flexible use (buyer to verify). A large brick storage building adds even more versatility. With acreage, multiple structures, and a beautiful setting, this property is a great opportunity to update and make your own.

3. 2026-02-11
   listed $240,000 Active 725-char remark

   Show marketing remark (725 chars)

   Bring your vision to this unique property offering 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with a spacious layout including a living room, dining area, kitchen, great room, laundry room, and two enclosed porches. Hardwood floors are in place and ready to be refreshed. Situated on 1.08 acres directly across from a scenic pond, the setting offers peaceful views and a rare backdrop. Above the detached garage, you’ll find additional space with two rooms, a bathroom, and a kitchenette area that is ideal for guests or flexible use (buyer to verify). A large brick storage building adds even more versatility. With acreage, multiple structures, and a beautiful setting, this property is a great opportunity to update and make your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,999 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,999 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,881
• − Property taxes: −$1,999
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$6,689
• Taxable loss: −$3,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$885
• After-tax cash flow: $1,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103090
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,354
• Composite: 61.44/100
• National rank: #759
• State rank: #16 of 131 in VA

Livability — Petersburg

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #17309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Petersburg City · 21,408 people
• City population: 63,420
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 21,408
• Household income: $60,807
• Rent vs Own: 41.1% rent · 58.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 719.0

Population outlook (Prince George County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,946 people
• By 2030: 48,155 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 54,455 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 61,115 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 78,510 · +74.7%
• By 2100: 85,572 · +90.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.9% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+17.2 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+9.8 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.37%
• Current HPI: 426.599
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $229,950 CVRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $240,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,999 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.