3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,038 sqft ·
Built 1920
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 44 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,052/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$419
Tax + insurance
−$258
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$431
Net cashflow
$943/mo
Annual
$11,321/yr
Cap rate
20.46%
Cash-on-cash
50.60%
DSCR
3.25
1% rule
2.57%
Cash to close
$22,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $943 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Evans-Brant Central School District (Lake Shore) (suburban): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #424 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Highland Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 356 students, 42% FRL); William G Houston Middle School (math 15% / reading 43%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 503 students, 0% FRL); Lake Shore Senior High School (math 92% / reading 95%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 671 students, 47% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 47% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Evans-Brant Central School District (Lake Shore) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 2.3% in Highland-on-the-Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FB4WTPBFNYM0WX
· Data 6 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29