419 You Winn Rd

Moss Bluff, LA 70611

$134,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,611 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 318 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,493/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $301/mo
• Annual: $3,607/yr
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.66%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#39 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Calcasieu Parish (other): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #29 of 98 in LA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 322 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,298 units permitted in Calcasieu Parish in 2024 (526 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calcasieu County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.5% in Moss Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.