419 You Winn Rd · Moss Bluff, LA 70611

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,611 sqft · SingleFamily · 318 Days on market

Built 1980 10,454 sqft lot $84/sqft · 45% below area Est $247k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-story log cabin-style home is an ideal investment property with strong bones, charming character, and plenty of upside. With 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, cathedral ceilings, an upstairs loft area, and a covered front porch, this home offers the ideal blank slate to make it your own. Whether you plan to modernize it for yourself, resale, or hold as a long-term rental, the options are endless. Located in a quiet, well-established neighborhood in Moss Bluff school district. Home is being sold as-is. All measurements +/-.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Upstairs loft area
• Log cabin style

Tags

• LOG CABIN STYLE
• UPSTAIRS LOFT AREA
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• MOSS BLUFF SCHOOL DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.5% in Moss Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#39 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Calcasieu Parish (other): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #29 of 98 in LA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 322 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,298 units permitted in Calcasieu Parish in 2024 (526 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calcasieu County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.66%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,946
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -45.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
620 You Winn Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-2%)	7mo	$217,000	$137	82
1528 W Pine Meadows Dr Dr W	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-1%)	3mo	$177,500	$111	60
1075 S Berryvine Ln Ln S	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,781 (+11%)	2mo	$219,000	$123	58
1715 Goos Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+6%)	19mo	$255,000	$149	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,727
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $22,234
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70611

• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $584/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,112

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
412 N Highway 171 Lake Charles, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	21d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,900 Active 318 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 317 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 316 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 315 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 314 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 312 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 311 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,900 Active 309 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 308 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 307 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 306 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,900 Active 303 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 301 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 300 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 299 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,900 Active 298 DOM
17. 2025-11-10
    price $134,900 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    This 2-story log cabin-style home is an ideal investment property with strong bones, charming character, and plenty of upside. With 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, cathedral ceilings, an upstairs loft area, and a covered front porch, this home offers the ideal blank slate to make it your own. Whether you plan to modernize it for yourself, resale, or hold as a long-term rental, the options are endless. Located in a quiet, well-established neighborhood in Moss Bluff school district. Home is being sold as-is. All measurements +/-.

18. 2025-04-16
    listed $144,900 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    This 2-story log cabin-style home is an ideal investment property with strong bones, charming character, and plenty of upside. With 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, cathedral ceilings, an upstairs loft area, and a covered front porch, this home offers the ideal blank slate to make it your own. Whether you plan to modernize it for yourself, resale, or hold as a long-term rental, the options are endless. Located in a quiet, well-established neighborhood in Moss Bluff school district. Home is being sold as-is. All measurements +/-.

19. 2020-12-18
    soldstatus $140,000
20. 2013-01-15
    soldstatus $119,900
21. 2012-06-08
    soldstatus $42,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $584 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $742 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$584
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,433
• − Management: −$1,433
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $1,511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$363
• After-tax cash flow: $3,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calcasieu Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200330
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -33.00%
• Median HH income: $44,700
• Composite: 31.45/100
• National rank: #5979
• State rank: #29 of 98 in LA

Livability — Moss Bluff

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #6117

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moss Bluff, LA
• County: Calcasieu Parish · 170,889 people
• Metro: Lake Charles, LA
• Population (ZIP): 22,124
• Household income: $101,844
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 183.0

Population outlook (Calcasieu County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,179 people
• By 2030: 218,199 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 228,486 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 236,208 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 251,696 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 247,848 · +16.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 11% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calcasieu

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.6) · D 29.5% · R 69.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.6pp · 2024: -39.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.6 2020: R+35.2 2016: R+33.3 2012: R+28.7 2008: R+24.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.82%
• Current HPI: 115.0052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake Charles, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+219.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $134,900 SWLAR
• 2025-04-16 Listed $144,900 SWLAR
• 2020-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2013-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 2012-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $42,250 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $584 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.