3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,424 sqft ·
Built 1968
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 7 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,931/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,259
Tax + insurance
−$193
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$405
Net cashflow
$73/mo
Annual
$879/yr
Cap rate
6.66%
Cash-on-cash
1.31%
DSCR
1.06
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$67,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($879/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (19.6% below list).
Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $193k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Lone Star Elementary School (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 386 students, 59% FRL); Arlington Middle School (math 23% / reading 21%, grade F, #549 of 571 statewide, top 97%, 798 students, 74% FRL); Sandalwood High School (math 53% / reading 46%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,771 students, 42% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $36k; list at $240k implies a 558% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FBDQ8S0EXFB7T1
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29