3509 Prestige Ln #57

Bakersfield, CA 93313

$299,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,213/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-162/mo
• Annual: $-1,943/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.32%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (26.0% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Panama-Buena Vista Union (urban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #542 of 1,400 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Louise Sandrini Elementary (597 students, 92% FRL); Fred L. Thompson Junior High (728 students, 93% FRL); West High (reading 90%, 2,025 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 51% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $299k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?