3509 Prestige Ln #57 · Bakersfield, CA 93313

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1977 6,098 sqft lot $193/sqft · 14% below area Est $347k · 14% under $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beauty is back on the market with recent interior and exterior updates. Brand new roof, new insulation for improved efficiency, and recessed lighting for relaxing modern look. This home has 2 spacious bedrooms / 2 full bathrooms, 2 large living spaces with opportunity to convert into an extra bedroom, 2 large covered patios, a covered carport and a spa. No more leasing space the land is INCLUDED.

Key facts

• Recessed lighting
• Large covered patios
• New roof

Tags

• RECENT INTERIOR UPDATES
• RECENT EXTERIOR UPDATES
• NEW ROOF
• NEW INSULATION
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• LARGE COVERED PATIOS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Panama-Buena Vista Union (urban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #542 of 1,400 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Louise Sandrini Elementary (597 students, 92% FRL); Fred L. Thompson Junior High (728 students, 93% FRL); West High (reading 90%, 2,025 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 51% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $299k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,326 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.32%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,436
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -13.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4113 Estate St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-7%)	2mo	$240,000	$167	84
3608 Sahara	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-4%)	6mo	$275,000	$185	82
3509 Sahara Ln	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-7%)	13mo	$230,000	$160	70
4401 Hughes Ln #148	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,532 (-1%)	2mo	$110,000	$72	69
4401 Hughes Ln #57	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-7%)	2mo	$80,000	$56	56
4401 Hughes Ln #153	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-6%)	12mo	$130,000	$89	54
4401 Hughes Ln #33	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-7%)	16mo	$50,000	$35	44
4401 Hughes Ln #135	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-14%)	6mo	$135,000	$101	41
4401 Hughes Ln #50	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-7%)	21mo	$75,000	$52	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-60,770
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-74,284
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93313

• Home prices YoY: -20.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,213 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,894/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,418

Max offer price $270,392

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-77	+0% $-162	+5% $-247	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-337	-5% $-249	+0% $-162	+5% $-75	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-86	base $-162	+0.5pp $-239	+1.0pp $-318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3605 Biltmore Ln Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	4d	1	0.08mi
4309 Rosewall St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,200	$1.62	4d	1	0.18mi
4208 White Ln Unit A Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,575	$1.31	4d	1	0.47mi
4208 White Ln Apt B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,575	$1.31	12d	1	0.47mi
4413 White Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,250	$1.80	23d	1	0.55mi
2801 El Berrendo Ave Unit 1 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,395	$1.61	16d	1	0.56mi
4505 Gardenwood Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1385	$2,295	$1.66	4d	1	0.63mi
3605 Truman Ave Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1643	$2,295	$1.40	12d	1	0.77mi
2625 Miria Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,850	$1.41	25d	1	0.79mi
3401 Starwood Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	12d	1	0.84mi
2313 San Lorenzo Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,095	$1.51	4d	1	0.85mi
2308 Kelso Peak Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1752	$3,900	$2.23	5d	1	0.85mi
4508 Planz Rd Apt A Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	4d	1	0.89mi
2805 Cambria Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.5	1395	$2,050	$1.47	4d	1	0.90mi
4513 Summer Side Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,250	$1.45	4d	1	0.92mi
2704 Villalovos Ct Unit 2 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,650	$1.51	45d	1	1.02mi
2600 Chandler Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1073	$1,495	$1.39	16d	1	1.04mi
4605 Mount Everest Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,250	$1.54	4d	1	1.06mi
3316 Fiesta Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	3.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	45d	1	1.10mi
4508 Foxboro Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,200	$1.46	23d	1	1.13mi
2109 Belvedere Ave Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	4d	1	1.19mi
5119 Appleblossom Dr Apt 1 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1860	$1,800	$0.97	4d	1	1.19mi
3509 Cardamon Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,900	$1.72	45d	1	1.26mi
4508 Blossom Valley Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,850	$1.67	23d	1	1.26mi
6304 Castleford St Unit 4 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	45d	1	1.26mi
6302 Castleford St Unit 4 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	4d	1	1.27mi
2312 Castro Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1127	$2,100	$1.86	4d	1	1.28mi
1821 Lacey St Unit H Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,150	$1.59	45d	1	1.28mi
1821 Lacey St Apt J Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,150	$1.59	4d	1	1.29mi
6401 Castleford St Unit C Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,500	$1.33	20d	1	1.30mi
3013 Alma Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1151	$2,100	$1.82	4d	1	1.31mi
5106 Glacier Canyon Ct Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	2140	$2,700	$1.26	45d	1	1.35mi
5106 Glacier Canyon Ct Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	2140	$2,800	$1.31	4d	1	1.35mi
5204 Curson Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,050	$1.66	12d	1	1.38mi
3608 Balboa Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.5	1051	$2,195	$2.09	4d	1	1.40mi
5115 Snowdrift Ct Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,700	$1.40	12d	1	1.43mi
5012 Greenville Ct Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	45d	1	1.45mi
2246 Hasti Acres Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1859	$2,395	$1.29	12d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    status Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    This beauty is back on the market with recent interior and exterior updates. Brand new roof, new insulation for improved efficiency, and recessed lighting for relaxing modern look. This home has 2 spacious bedrooms / 2 full bathrooms, 2 large living spaces with opportunity to convert into an extra bedroom, 2 large covered patios, a covered carport and a spa. No more leasing space the land is INCLUDED.

18. 2026-03-06
    listed $299,000 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    This beauty is back on the market with recent interior and exterior updates. Brand new roof, new insulation for improved efficiency, and recessed lighting for relaxing modern look. This home has 2 spacious bedrooms / 2 full bathrooms, 2 large living spaces with opportunity to convert into an extra bedroom, 2 large covered patios, a covered carport and a spa. No more leasing space the land is INCLUDED.

19. 2025-11-14
    listed $270,000 Active
20. 2009-03-31
    soldstatus $79,000
21. 2009-03-31
    soldstatus $79,000
22. 2009-03-09
    historical
23. 2008-07-07
    listed $79,000
24. 2000-03-03
    soldstatus $66,000
25. 1994-05-12
    soldstatus $62,000
26. 1993-12-16
    soldstatus $61,250
27. 1993-12-16
    soldstatus $14,000
28. 1993-12-08
    price $70,000
29. 1993-12-08
    historical
30. 1993-09-14
    listed $61,250
31. 1991-12-09
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,894 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$378/yr (+$32/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,894
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,125
• − Management: −$2,125
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,739
• After-tax cash flow: $-204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Panama-Buena Vista Union
• NCES district ID: 0606390
• Math proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,361
• Composite: 41.71/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #542 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,843
• Household income: $91,943
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1177.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% Two or more races 28% White 22% Asian 13% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.95%
• Current HPI: 335.9445
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1561.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $299,000 GEMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $270,000 GEMLS
• 2009-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2009-03-31 Sold (MLS) $79,000 GEMLS
• 2009-03-09 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2008-07-07 Listed $79,000 GEMLS
• 2000-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1993-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 1993-12-16 Sold (MLS) $61,250 GEMLS
• 1993-12-08 Delisted — GEMLS
• 1993-12-08 Price Changed $70,000 GEMLS
• 1993-09-14 Listed $61,250 GEMLS
• 1991-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,894 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.