309 S Barry St

Mertens, TX 76666

$60,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $856/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $291/mo
• Annual: $3,492/yr
• Cap rate: 12.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.79%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $16,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($856 rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,282 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Frost ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #517 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frost El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 215 students, 66% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.