309 S Barry St · Mertens, TX 76666

$60,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1945 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special. Needing a new project to take on?? This home is ready for a completely new change, it already has a new roof replaced in 2023. Come take a look, the possibilities are endless.

Key facts

• New roof
• 0.36 acre lot
• Built 1945

Tags

• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 125217; Property zoned/identified for residential single-family use
• Financial info: Listing treated as clear for loan purposes; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No covered or carport spaces reported; Other parking features
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence, one story; Built in 1945; Residential property, not attached
• Construction: Built in 1945; No construction material or roof details provided
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approx. 0.365 acre); Located in the Hollingsworth subdivision; Directions: From FM 308 turn left onto Buie St, turn left on Barry St; property will be on the right

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details provided
• Interior features: Two-room layout with one living area and one dining area; Room count includes 2 rooms; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($856 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,282 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Frost ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #517 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frost El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 215 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.79%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $27,709
• Equity at exit: $29,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $70,312
• Equity at exit: $46,462

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76666

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $544/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $487

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $60,000 Active 193-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$554/yr (+$46/mo · 102.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$544
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$821
• − Management: −$821
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $2,675
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$642
• After-tax cash flow: $2,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frost ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820040
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,062
• Composite: 30.09/100
• National rank: #6344
• State rank: #517 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mertens

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1282
• US rank: #22343

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mertens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 245

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Current HPI: 104.701
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $60,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $544 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.