146 Niagara Way

Manchester, NY 14504

$15,000D+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 780 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 259 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,425/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax + insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $1,022/mo
• Annual: $12,265/yr
• Cap rate: 88.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 292.03%
• DSCR: 13.99
• 1% rule: 9.50%
• Cash to close: $4,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $15k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $13k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#562 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Manchester-Shortsville Central School District (Red Jacket) (rural): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #343 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.